Three ways Millwall can beat Blackburn and reach the play-offs

Millwall have played themselves into a great position, as they sit sixth in the league, two points above Sunderland, West Brom and Blackburn Rovers, who are all level on points below them.

The good news for Millwall fans, is that it’s all in their hands. Beat Blackburn, and the club will secure a first finish in the play-offs since their promotion to the Championship in 2017.

However, anything other than three points on Monday, and there could be heart break for the Lions.

A draw eliminates Blackburn from play-off contention, but gives all of the control to Sunderland, who currently have +3 goal difference above West Brom, and would qualify for the play-offs with a win against Preston (assuming West Brom do not beat Swansea by five or more goals).

Lose to Blackburn, and Millwall will be eliminated from the play-off race altogether, as Blackburn will leapfrog the Lions onto 69 points, and then the last play-off position will come down to whether or not Sunderland or West Brom win their games.

So, with both sides desperately needing a win, how can Millwall ensure they end Blackburn’s play-off hopes and secure their own?

Tom Bradshaw and Zian Flemming

The duo up top for Millwall are responsible for scoring 32 of Millwall’s 54 goals in the Championship this season, with Bradshaw scoring 17 and Flemming with 15.

Without the two of them, Millwall would’ve only scored 22 goals this season, which is six less then Chuba Akpom has scored alone.

With the Lions' next highest goalscorer being Duncan Watmore with six, Millwall need to make sure they can create chances for their two most prolific players, otherwise, as the evidence suggests, they may struggle to score.

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The over-reliance on Flemming and Bradshaw could be looked at as both a positive and negative for Millwall. The duo have scored eight out of Millwall’s last 11 goals, spanning all the way back to March 4, and one of the goals not scored by either Flemming or Bradshaw was a penalty.

Because of this, Blackburn are likely to focus on cutting the supply to Flemming or Bradshaw, which could create greater opportunities for other players in the Millwall team.

Millwall will be hoping Flemming and Bradshaw can provide for them like they have done so often this season, but if Blackburn put their defensive focus on Millwall’s deadly attackers, it will be great opportunity for someone else in the Millwall team to step up.

Crossing

According to Fotmob, Millwall still top the charts in the Championship for accurate crosses per match, at 5.8, and the Lions could really make use of that part of their game against Blackburn, like they have done in recent matches.

Both of Blackburn's centre backs stand at six-foot-two, but it was the low crosses into the box that caused problems for Blackpool in Millwall’s last game.

Bradshaw’s first goal was created by Leonard, who pulled the ball back to the penalty spot where Bradshaw was able to convert.

Prior to Flemming’s penalty, it was a low cross into the box towards a similar area, that resulted in Watmore being fouled, and Flemming converted the resulting spot kick.

Even without crossing the ball aerially, Millwall can still create a big threat from the wide areas, where they have demonstrated they can be dangerous in multiple situations.

The Den

In Blackburn Rover’s last nine visits to the Den, they have drawn four, won four and lost only once. Blackburn have also come out victorious in five of their last nine meetings with Millwall, with the Lions scoring only four times in those games.

Rovers even beat Millwall earlier on in the season 2-1, although the Lions were without current top scorer Tom Bradshaw.

Millwall will be desperate to turn this run of form around ahead of a must-win last game of the season, and the atmosphere in the Den could be a key reason why the Lions come out with all three points.

Rovers attacker Sam Szmodics has said that Blackburn will need to block out the crowd in order to get a result on Monday.

Szmodics told South London Press that “Millwall is a tough place to go".

The 27-year-old said it’s a “hostile place” in the couple of times he’s played there and that Blackburn will have to play their football like they have done all season, and “ignore the crowd”.

For the final home game of the season, Millwall fans will have an opportunity to create an atmosphere that the away team will hate.

Millwall issued a statement on Thursday telling fans to remain off of the pitch come the final whistle, but if the Lions secure a play-off finish, they might have some trouble doing that.