CONTINGENCY plans to deal with a possible swine flu epidemic this winter in Bexley, have been unveiled.

Health chiefs say the pandemic may not happen because the virus has not behaved in the way other flu viruses have in the past, and instead of an explosion of infections, it may just become a “slow burn”.

Pam Creaven, the lead director on the issue for Bexley Care Trust, outlined the plans to members of Bexley Council’s health scrutiny committee last week.

She said at its peak a pandemic in Bexley would result in 14,500 simultaneously sick people.

Of those, it is estimated one per cent will need admission to hospital, and of those admitted, a quarter will need intensive care and 0.1 per cent will die.

It has eight community pharmacies in place to dispense antiviral drugs, with another seven on standby and there are three possible locations for a 24-hour dispensing site.

Vaccination of priority groups begins this week.

But South London Healthcare Trust operations director Stephen Cass warned there could be a strain on critical care beds across the trust’s three hospitals in Sidcup, Farnborough and Woolwich.

If a serious pandemic did strike, it could mean a halt to any planned surgery and outpatient clinics as beds, operating theatres and staff are diverted to deal with swine flu patients.